According to Punch Newspapers, citing a report by the Africa Finance Corporation, Africa is projected to face an 86 million tonne fuel shortfall by 2040, highlighting growing vulnerabilities in the continent’s energy supply chain. The report, unveiled in Nairobi, underscores Africa’s heavy reliance on imported refined fuel and exposure to global supply disruptions.
The AFC noted that Africa currently imports over 70 percent of its refined petroleum products and spends approximately $230 billion annually on essential imports, including fuel, fertiliser, and industrial materials. Demand for refined fuel is expected to rise significantly, increasing from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to 86 million tonnes by 2040. This shortfall is equivalent to nearly three large-scale refineries comparable to the Dangote Refinery.
Speaking at the report launch, AFC Chief Economist Rita Babihuga-Nsanze warned that recent geopolitical tensions, including disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have exposed Africa’s dependence on critical fuel supply routes. The chokepoint, which handles a significant share of global oil transport, has created shortages in several import-dependent regions, particularly in East Africa.
Beyond fuel, the report also highlighted fertiliser shortages tied to the crisis, noting that despite Africa holding about 80 percent of the world’s phosphate reserves, it produces only 20 percent of global fertiliser supply. This imbalance presents both a vulnerability and an opportunity for local production growth.
To address the looming deficit, the AFC recommended strengthening domestic refining capacity, investing in energy infrastructure, and improving regional distribution networks. It also stressed the need for better utilisation of existing energy assets, pointing to underused hydropower in countries like Zambia and Angola. Overall, the report calls for urgent, coordinated action to enhance energy security and reduce dependence on external supply chains.
