The Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Aliyu Sabi Abdullahi, recently disclosed that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has directed a crash in food prices while targeting food sovereignty. The Minister broke this news in Abuja during the presentation of a paper at a one-day capacity-building workshop organised by the Senate Press Corps for its members.
On the surface, this sounds reassuring. Who wouldn’t want cheaper food and a future where Nigeria produces enough for itself? But scratch beneath the surface, and you see a problem: food prices don’t obey decrees. They respond to realities on the ground—realities that today are very harsh for both farmers and consumers. Talk to any farmer in Kano, Benue, or Kebbi. They will tell you that the cost of producing food has never been this high due to the heavy weight of input.
Fertilizer, once heavily subsidised, now goes for around N700,000 per ton, a figure far beyond the reach of the ordinary smallholder farmer who typically cultivates less than two hectares. Herbicides, once affordable, now cost double or triple their former prices, making them scarce and expensive. Seeds are overpriced and sometimes unavailable, and farm labour—driven by rural-urban migration and insecurity in agrarian communities has become both scarce and expensive.
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The cumulative effect is that farmers are producing at costs that make food both costly and threatened. Every farmer—from the rice grower in Kebbi to the maize farmer in Kaduna, the tomato producer in Kano, and the cassava cultivator in Kogi—relies heavily on these key agricultural inputs: In the past three years, these inputs have witnessed a relentless upward spiral in prices.
When the cost of production is this high, how realistic is it to expect farmers to sell their produce cheaply? Unless government tackles input prices, the dream of crashing food costs remains exactly that—a dream.
Since the removal of petroleum subsidy in 2023, the cost of moving goods has skyrocketed. Most food in Nigeria travels long distances—maize from Kaduna to Lagos, yams from Benue to Port Harcourt, onions from Sokoto to Ibadan. Transport is the hidden hand shaping food prices and has become the silent price maker.
Now, a truckload of produce is burdened not just by fuel prices but also by illegal levies at countless checkpoints. By the time the goods reach the market, prices have doubled. Ordering a price crash without addressing transport costs is like telling water to flow uphill.
The Minister also spoke of food sovereignty. It’s a fine phrase. But let’s be clear: food sovereignty is not a slogan. It means farmers have secure access to land, water, seeds, and markets. It means local production is supported against unfair imports. It means reducing post-harvest losses and building storage facilities.
Right now, insecurity has forced many farmers off their land. Irrigation is poor. Extension services are weak. Up to 40 per cent of perishable crops rot before they reach consumers. So where exactly is the sovereignty? Without fixing these basics, declarations from Abuja sound hollow and empty slogans.
There is another danger. Populist declarations about cheap food often tempt governments to force prices down artificially. History shows this backfires. When farmers can’t recover their costs, they stop producing. Traders hoard goods. Black markets thrive. In the end, scarcity worsens and the poor suffers even more.
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Instead of political sound bites, what Nigeria needs is a serious food plan with these urgent steps;
Support inputs: Revive targeted subsidies for fertilizer and seeds. Strengthen local blending plants and agro-dealer networks.
Ease transport costs: Concessional fuel for food transporters. Fewer checkpoints. Better rural roads.
Secure farms: Deploy agro-rangers and community policing to reclaim abandoned farmlands.
Invest in Storage and Processing: Cold chains, silos, and agro-processing clusters will cut waste and stabilize supply.
Empower Farmers with Knowledge: Strengthen extension services and link research institutes to farmers. Food sovereignty is also knowledge sovereignty.
Policy Consistency: Stop contradictory moves. Don’t remove subsidies on one hand and demand lower prices on the other.
Nigerians want cheaper food. Farmers want fair returns for their sweat. Both sides can win—but only if government matches words with action. Food prices will not fall because the President wishes it. They will fall when the cost of inputs, transport, insecurity, and waste is tackled head-on.
Food sovereignty is possible. But it will not be achieved through slogans. It will be built season by season, hectare by hectare, through deliberate investment in inputs, infrastructure, security, and farmer empowerment. Until then, political statements that ignore production realities risk doing more harm than good for both producers and consumers.
The call for a crash in food prices and the promise of food sovereignty resonate with the hopes of millions of Nigerians struggling under inflationary pressures. Yet, hope must be married with realism. Farmers, transporters, processors, and marketers cannot be commanded into losses for patriotic reasons. They need an enabling environment that makes production profitable, distribution efficient, and markets fair.
Food sovereignty cannot be declared by fiat—it must be built through deliberate investment in inputs, infrastructure, security, and farmer empowerment. Until then, political statements that ignore production realities risk doing more harm than good.
Nigeria deserves more than rhetoric. It deserves a comprehensive agricultural policy that respects both the farmer’s sweat and the consumer’s hunger. Until then, no amount of orders will command food prices to crash. Reality always has the final say. If government truly seeks a crash in food prices, it must first ensure a crash in the cost of production. To expect otherwise is to place the cart before the horse.